February 6, 2026

It has been another long dry spell in Northern Nevada and the Sierra since early in January. The last time we recorded any precipitation at our weather site was January 8th. Our precipitation total for the month of January was 1.50", well below average. If we look back at the last three months of 2025 we can see a pattern of long dry spells and then intense precipitation. We recorded 1.70" in October, all in the few few days of the month, then nearly a month before the next period of precipitation late in November totalling 2.60". A long dry spell until December 18th when we had heavy precipitation, especially in the Sierra. We recorded 5.56" of precipitation, mostly rain below 6500 ft. in December.

Along with the long dry periods we have seen well above average daytime temperatures. Most days have been ten to fifteen degrees above average with strong inversions. Many days we saw temperatures in Montreux exceed the temperature at the Reno airport. Below is a temperature graph for January in Reno, all but 7 days exceeded the average daytime temperature.

This has been a trend all season, long periods of dry weather and warm temperatures followed by moderate to intense periods of precipitation. We're at the end of the first week of February and as I stated earlier we haven't see any precipitation for almost a month. The culprit in all of this has been a persistent area of High Pressure that has dominated the eastern Pacific this winter. Not only has it brought the west dry, mild weather, it has also been responsible for the frigid winter in the Mid-West and East Coast. At times the Jet Stream was so amplified it reached into the Arctic before dropping rapidly into the eastern US. Below is a snapshot of the current position of the High Pressure Ridge and Jet Stream at 500 mb.

Today the High is located over Nevada and is slowly moving east. The Jet Stream is not very amplified when the High is this far inland, only reaching into Western Canada, thus the northern air dropping into the Mid-West is not nearly as cold as it was a week ago. This movement of the High will allow the Jet Stream to become zonal, west to east that should bring moisture and colder temperatures into our area.

In this forecast graphic we can see the Jet Stream ( Lime Green ) running west to east next Tuesday. The Jet is not very strong, only a small red area, winds at about 30,000 ft of around 110mph. This gives us some indication of intensity of any storms riding in on the Jet Stream. This is likely not going to produce much in the way of storminess, but upstream you can see a stronger section of the Jet which will impact us later in the week.

This graphic shows a Trough developed just off the Northern California Coast Saturday afternoon. The Jet stream drops out of the north over the water then on a west to east trajectory into Central California. This is ideal for bringing precipitation into our area.

Here we see the forecast graphic showing the precipitation for Sunday morning about 4 AM. Snow and rain have moved into the Sierra and likely spilling over into Valley locations. The parent Low remains off the coast and depending how long it remains in that location will determine total precipitation. The Trough is almost vertical ' this will enhance precipitation making it beyong the Sierra. This is a well positioned Low with Jet stream support and although much can happen in the next 10 days, this looks very promising.

FORECAST:

Here is what I wrote this morning on our weather site:

Friday 2/6/2026

Mostly cloudy and mild with light winds today. Expect Reno to reach 60° and Montreux 57°. Clouds this morning from a weak system to the south may produce some showers mainly in the Sierra and south of Lake Tahoe. We continue with temperatures well above the seasonal average of 50° in Reno. Dry, mild conditions will continue through the weekend with mostly sunny skies. Valley haze caused by an inversion will continue. Finally, a pattern change with some unsettled weather and cooler temperatures beginning Monday. Chances for precipitation are increasing, especially later in the week. The first system may drop a few inches of snow in the Sierra by Tuesday night with Reno likely only seeing a light shower. Periods of clouds and showers mid week, then a better chance for heavier precipitation as we approach the weekend. Temperatures will be below seasonal averages most of the week ahead. The good news is the High Pressure Ridge is breaking down possibly allowing more Winter like weather to impact the area mid to late month.

Since I wrote that early this morning, I am more convinced we will see a nice event over the President's Day weekend. I remember another President's weekend many years ago ( I think it was 1992 ). On Friday morning it began to snow in Reno, by noon there was a foot and a half of snow on the ground and we decided to shut our factory down early so our employees could get home. Some didn't have 4 wheel drive vehicles, so my youngest son and I drove many of them home before we headed up to Galena. We met up at Mt Rose Hwy and US 395, (no freeway back then), I had a suburban and he had his International Scout. The snow got deeper the higher we went up the highway, when we arrived at Douglas Fir Drive there was a five foot wall of snow. We managed to get our vehicles off the highway and mostly crawled through the deep snow to our house. That afternoon and night it snowed eight feet in eight hours, ten feet overall. I'm not forecasting a storm like that, but it can happen. By Saturday Reno was mostly shut down with four feet of snow and six foot berms. One last item:

Here we have our friend the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) for the same period. The number along the red line starts the forecast from today, the 6th through the 20th. When the MJO is in this space, it is favorable for precipitation on the West Coast. Here you can see the chart that shows the MJO effect. This is a positive signal to reinforce our forecast and beyond. Speaking of beyond, I am encouraged that the Ridge that has been blocking our winter storm system is not going to return anytime soon. Beyond this forecast I see the rest of February with a mix of dry days and unsettled days with more precipitation for our area. I also see a fairly wet March, likely any snow will be fairly high, 6500 ft or above, by there is always that chance we could see some snow in lower elevations. Don't give up on a near normal snowpack either, it can come fast and furiously.

That all for now, we will keep looking forward for more signs of powder for our skiing friends.

If you want a hard copy of our Winter forecast you can view a .PDF copy HERE.

Check our daily report and the National Weather Service for updates. Our daily report on our weather station site, looks 3 to 5 days ahead.

Please comment, if you like, on our forecasts, your own observations, or anything else. Our email link is posted below.

Three month look ahead for March, April and May 2026.

Visit our weather station site for Daily Forecasts at www.renowx.net

Contact us by sending your email to info@renowx.net